from a CPAC-SES Tracking polling report, completed December 7
"For the past three days of CPAC-SES tracking, the Liberals have enjoyed a comfortable lead. As of Thursday night the Liberals had 41 percent support followed by the Conservatives at 26 percent, the NDP at 18 percent, the BQ at 11 percent and the Green Party at 4 percent. The percentage of Quebec voters who are undecided continues to climb. On our first day of CPAC-SES tracking, 11 percent of Quebecers were undecided. This has now hit 28 percent in Quebec. For the next week, Quebec will be the province to watch." — Nik Nanos, President, SES Research.
Today, CPAC and SES are releasing detailed regional breakdowns based on a respondent sample of 2000 Canadians (5 days of field work) completed between December 4 and December 8, 2005.
As you might have seen, another major national polling firm, Leger Marketing, released a poll yesterday, which is consistent with the trends we identified earlier this week.
With CPAC and SES you get the trends first.
Field dates:
SES Research (N-5 decided voters, Dec. 5 to Dec. 7, 2005)
Leger Marketing (N=787 decided voters, Dec. 2 to Dec. 7, 2005)
LIB - SES 40 percent, Leger 39 percent
CP - SES 26 percent, Leger 27 percent
NDP - SES 18 percent, Leger 16 percent
BQ - SES 11 percent, Leger 12 percent
GP - SES 4 percent, Leger 5 percent
And now for today's numbers:
Polling December 6 to December 8, 2005 (Random Telephone Survey of 1200 Canadians, MoE ± 2.9 percent, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Longitudinal tracking charts on all measures can be found at the SES website at www.sesresearch.com (link below).
All values in parenthesis are changes from our November 13th national survey.
Canada:
Decided Voters LIB - 41 percent (+7)
CP - 26 percent (-2) NDP - 18 percent (-2)
BQ - 11 percent (-3)
GP - 4 percent (NC)
* 20 percent of Canadians were undecided (+6)
In Quebec:
BQ - 50 percent (-5)
LIB - 32 percent (+8)
CP - 9 percent (+1)
NDP - 7 percent (-1)
GP - 1 percent (-3)
Outside Quebec:
LIB - 44 percent (+7)
CP - 32 percent (-3)
NDP - 21 percent (-4)
GP - 5 percent (+1)
Best PM:
Martin - 30 percent (+1)
Unsure -19 percent (+6)
Harper - 18 percent (-4)
None - 13 percent (+2)
Layton - 12 percent (-4)
Duceppe - 6 percent (-1)
Harris - 2 percent (-2)
Leadership Index:
(Daily composite of the Leaders' Trust, Competence and Vision)*
Martin - 83 (-2)
Harper - 52 (+7)
Layton - 46 (+7)
Duceppe - 24 (-1)
Harris - 5 (-2)
* Change for this measure is from yesterday's composite score.
The SES website posts an updated daily longitudinal tracking chart, regional breakdowns and details on the questions and the methodology each afternoon. Watch PrimeTime Politics at 8 pm EST (Monday to Friday) to get a detailed briefing of the numbers.
Nikita James Nanos is CMRP President & CEO SES Research. CPAC sponsors this polling data and research (CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking).
Related addresses:
URL 1: www.sesresearch.com
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