from a CPAC-SES Tracking polling report, completed December 29, 30 and January 3
"CPAC-SES tracking shows the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals for the first time in the campaign. Stephen Harper is also statistically tied with Paul Martin as the party leader Canadians think would make the best Prime Minister. The three point Tory lead is on the cusp of the margin of accuracy among decided voters. Tracking completed Tuesday night has the Conservatives at 36 percent, the Liberals at 33 percent, the NDP at 15 percent, the BQ at 13 percent and the Green Party at 4 percent nationally." —Nik Nanos, President, SES Research
Polling December 29 to 30, 2005, and January 3, 2006 (Random Telephone Survey of 1200 Canadians, MoE ± 2.9 percent, 19 times out of 20). Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. Our tracking polls allow for a daily barometer on the activities of the respective campaigns. Longitudinal tracking charts on all measures can be found at the SES website, link below.
All values in parenthesis are changes from our first day of tracking on December 1, 2005.
Canada Decided Voters (Tracking ended January 3, 2006):
CP 36 percent (+7)
LIB 33 percent (-4)
NDP 15 percent (NC)
BQ 13 percent (-1)
GP 4 (-1)
* 17 percent of Canadians were undecided (+1)
In Quebec:
BQ 52 percent (+2)
LIB 27 percent (-3)
CP 12 percent (+3)
NDP 6 percent (NC)
GP 3 percent (-3)
* 20 percent of Quebecers were undecided (+9)
In Ontario:
CP 39 percent (+6)
LIB 38 percent (-4)
NDP 16 percent (-2)
GP 7 percent (+2)
* 15 percent of Ontarians were undecided (-5)
Outside Quebec:
CP 43 percent (+6)
LIB 34 percent (-5) NDP 17 percent (-2)
GP 5 percent (+1)
* 16 percent of Canadians outside Quebec were undecided (-1)
Best PM:
Martin 26 percent (-3)
Harper 25 percent (+4)
Unsure 18 percent (+1)
Layton 12 percent (-2)
None 10 percent (-2)
Duceppe 7 percent (+1)
Harris 2 percent (NC)
Leadership Index: [Daily composite of the Leaders' Trust, Competence and Vision]*
Martin 68 (-8)
Harper 65 (+2)
Layton 47 (+8)
Duceppe 26 (NC)
Harris 6 (-3)
* Change for this measure is from yesterday's composite score.
The SES website posts an updated daily longitudinal tracking chart, regional breakdowns and details on the questions and the methodology each afternoon. Watch PrimeTime Politics at 8 pm EST (Monday to Friday) to get a detailed briefing of the numbers.
Nikita James Nanos is CMRP President & CEO SES Research. CPAC sponsors this polling data and research (CPAC-SES Nightly Tracking).
Related addresses:
URL 1: www.sesresearch.com
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