Political pollsters missed slight shift

Changes weren't dramatic, but there was enough of a shift to the Tories in Ontario where they gained more seats than projected.

Dateline: Tuesday, October 21, 2008

By Bea Vongdouangchanh

Although most polls throughout the 40th general election campaign accurately captured voting intentions, there was a slight shift on the last weekend before voting day which under-represented Conservative support in both final polling and seat projections, giving pollsters some minor lessons, say political polling experts.

"The primary thing that pollsters learned from recent elections is that they must be cautious about saying that results taken a few days before an election will continue to apply on election day in a straightforward way," said Scott Bennett, a Carleton University political science professor who specializes in quantitative research methods. "Once again, we saw a last-minute shift or crystallization over the long weekend. This time Conservative support ended up being a bit stronger than one might have thought had one based their view on pre-weekend polling. So, the 2008 election is another lesson about the real volatility of polls."

This did not mean that the polls before election day were inaccurate, Professor Bennett told The Hill Times in an email, but rather, "a matter of real shifts in opinion after late polls but before election day." He said the changes were not dramatic, but there was enough of a shift to the Conservatives in Ontario that allowed them to gain more seats than previously projected....

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Bea Vongdouangchanh is the Assistant Deputy Editor of The Hill Times in Ottawa.

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